Bristol City v Oxford United
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bristol City beat Oxford United 5–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Joe Williams for 1+ tackles (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Matty James for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Williams | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kal Naismith | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jason Knight | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anis Mehmeti | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matty James | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| George Tanner | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Harry Cornick | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nahki Wells | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Bell | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mark Sykes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mark Harris | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jason Knight | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nahki Wells | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rob Dickie | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Oxford United 0–0 Bristol City Jan 2026
- Bristol City 1–3 Oxford United Sep 2025
- Oxford United 1–1 Bristol City Feb 2025
- Bristol City 2–1 Oxford United Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Oxford United?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Oxford United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Matty James at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.