AFC Ajax v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax lost to PSV Eindhoven 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Pepi for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Marcos Leonardo for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sven Mijnans | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Esmir Bajraktarević | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ruben van Bommel | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Guus Til | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcos Leonardo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oscar Gloukh | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tolu Arokodare | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Wanner | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kodai Sano | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 2–2 PSV Eindhoven May 2026
- PSV Eindhoven 2–2 AFC Ajax Sep 2025
- PSV Eindhoven 0–2 AFC Ajax Mar 2025
- AFC Ajax 3–2 PSV Eindhoven Nov 2024
- AFC Ajax 1–1 PSV Eindhoven Feb 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 5–2 AFC Ajax Oct 2023
- PSV Eindhoven 3–0 AFC Ajax Apr 2023
- AFC Ajax 1–2 PSV Eindhoven Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v PSV Eindhoven?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marcos Leonardo at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.