AFC Ajax v Willem II Tilburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax beat Willem II Tilburg 5–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Steven Berghuis for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Chido Obi-Martin for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Tsygankov | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Oscar Gloukh | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 7 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Abdellah Ouazane | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Julian Brandt | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Devin Haen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jorthy Mokio | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Chido Obi-Martin | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sofyan Amrabat | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jaden Slory | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Uriel van Aalst | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tonny Vilhena | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Willem II Tilburg 1–2 AFC Ajax Apr 2025
- AFC Ajax 1–0 Willem II Tilburg Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v Willem II Tilburg?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v Willem II Tilburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Chido Obi-Martin at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.