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Eredivisie 22/23

Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven

How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

Almere City FC2 – 1 FC Eindhoven 26 May 2023
4/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Almere City FC beat FC Eindhoven 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 4 landed — the strongest being Charles-Andreas Brym for 1+ shots total (74%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Evan Rottier for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials-18% cards vs the league average
Marc Nagtegaal refereed this match 2.63cards a gameleague 3.19 71games
Marc Nagtegaal's card record
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Evan Rottier shots total 1+ 77% 0 ✗
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga shots total 1+ 77% 0 ✗
Pascu shots total 1+ 74% 3 ✓
Naoufal Bannis shots total 1+ 74% 0 ✗
Charles-Andreas Brym shots total 1+ 74% 1 ✓
Anthony Limbombe Ekango shots total 1+ 72% 1 ✓
Ilias Alhaft shots total 1+ 72% 4 ✓
Brian De Keersmaecker shots total 1+ 58% 0 ✗
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp shots total 1+ 58% 0 ✗
Dyon Dorenbosch shots total 1+ 58% 0 ✗
Sven Van Doorm shots total 1+ 58% 0 ✗
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga shots on target 1+ 57% 0 ✗
Naoufal Bannis shots on target 1+ 57% 0 ✗
Evan Rottier shots on target 1+ 57% 0 ✗

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven?

4 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven?

The most confident call it got wrong was Evan Rottier at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.