AZ Alkmaar v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AZ Alkmaar drew with AFC Ajax 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Troy Parrott for 1+ shots total (91%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Kasper Dolberg for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mika Godts | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rayane Bounida | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jizz Hornkamp | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ro-Zangelo Daal | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kian Fitz-Jim | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Isak Jensen | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasper Boogaard | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matěj Šín | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sean Steur | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Peer Koopmeiners | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 0–2 AZ Alkmaar Oct 2025
- AFC Ajax 2–2 AZ Alkmaar Mar 2025
- AZ Alkmaar 2–1 AFC Ajax Dec 2024
- AZ Alkmaar 2–0 AFC Ajax Feb 2024
- AFC Ajax 1–2 AZ Alkmaar Oct 2023
- AFC Ajax 0–0 AZ Alkmaar May 2023
- AZ Alkmaar 2–1 AFC Ajax Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AZ Alkmaar v AFC Ajax?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AZ Alkmaar v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kasper Dolberg at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.