AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AZ Alkmaar drew with Excelsior 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Troy Parrott for 1+ shots total (96%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Ibrahim Sadiq for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sadiq | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ro-Zangelo Daal | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jerolldino Bergraaf | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Isak Jensen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sadiq | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Troy Parrott | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kasper Boogaard | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kees Smit | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noah Naujoks | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emil Hansson | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Excelsior 1–2 AZ Alkmaar Feb 2026
- AZ Alkmaar 4–0 Excelsior Mar 2024
- Excelsior 1–1 AZ Alkmaar Nov 2023
- AZ Alkmaar 5–0 Excelsior Feb 2023
- Excelsior 2–1 AZ Alkmaar Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ibrahim Sadiq at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.