AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AZ Alkmaar drew with NAC Breda 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Mexx Meerdink for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Troy Parrott for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexx Meerdink | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Moussa Soumano | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Weslley Patati | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sven Mijnans | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ayoub Oufkir | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pepijn Reulen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brahim Ghalidi | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isak Jensen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ro-Zangelo Daal | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charles-Andreas Brym | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| André Ayew | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Denso Kasius | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mexx Meerdink | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- NAC Breda 0–1 AZ Alkmaar Aug 2025
- AZ Alkmaar 1–1 NAC Breda Apr 2025
- NAC Breda 1–2 AZ Alkmaar Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda?
The most confident call it got wrong was Troy Parrott at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.