De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before De Graafschap lost to ADO Den Haag 2–3, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 4 landed — the strongest being Henk Veerman for 1+ shots total (87%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Henk Veerman for 1+ shots on target (57%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henk Veerman | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Daryl van Mieghem | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jari Vlak | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daryl van Mieghem | shots on target | 1+ | 57% | 2 | ✓ |
| Henk Veerman | shots on target | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matteo Waem | shots total | 1+ | 47% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jari Vlak | shots on target | 1+ | 37% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matteo Waem | shots on target | 1+ | 15% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- ADO Den Haag 2–2 De Graafschap May 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag?
4 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on De Graafschap v ADO Den Haag?
The most confident call it got wrong was Henk Veerman at 57% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.