Excelsior v PEC Zwolle
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Excelsior beat PEC Zwolle 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Jerolldino Bergraaf for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Koen Kostons for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerolldino Bergraaf | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Koen Kostons | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Szymon Włodarczyk | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Thijs Oosting | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jan Faberski | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Shola Shoretire | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kaj de Rooij | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noah Naujoks | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Gyan de Regt | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dylan Mbayo | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Irakli Yegoian | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Koen Kostons | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lennard Hartjes | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PEC Zwolle 2–2 Excelsior Apr 2026
- PEC Zwolle 2–1 Excelsior Apr 2024
- Excelsior 2–4 PEC Zwolle Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Excelsior v PEC Zwolle?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Excelsior v PEC Zwolle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Koen Kostons at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.