Excelsior v RKC Waalwijk
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Excelsior drew with RKC Waalwijk 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being David Min for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Michiel Kramer for 1+ shots on target (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Min | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Chris Lokesa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Richonell Margaret | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lazaros Lamprou | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Couhaib Driouech | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Michiel Kramer | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lance Duijvestijn | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mats Seuntjens | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Reuven Niemeijer | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| David Min | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Michiel Kramer | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kenzo Goudmijn | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yassin Oukili | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RKC Waalwijk 2–2 Excelsior Dec 2023
- Excelsior 0–0 RKC Waalwijk Feb 2023
- RKC Waalwijk 5–2 Excelsior Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Excelsior v RKC Waalwijk?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Excelsior v RKC Waalwijk?
The most confident call it got wrong was Michiel Kramer at 73% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.