FC Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Utrecht lost to PSV Eindhoven 1–6, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Pepi for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Adrian Blake for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adrian Blake | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Esmir Bajraktarević | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ruben van Bommel | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 6 | ✓ |
| Guus Til | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yoann Cathline | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Artem Stepanov | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ángel Alarcón | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Wanner | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noah Fernandez | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kodai Sano | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Davy van den Berg | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PSV Eindhoven 4–3 FC Utrecht Apr 2026
- FC Utrecht 1–2 PSV Eindhoven Dec 2025
- PSV Eindhoven 2–2 FC Utrecht Feb 2025
- FC Utrecht 2–5 PSV Eindhoven Dec 2024
- FC Utrecht 1–1 PSV Eindhoven Jan 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 FC Utrecht Aug 2023
- FC Utrecht 2–2 PSV Eindhoven Feb 2023
- PSV Eindhoven 6–1 FC Utrecht Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Adrian Blake at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.