Feyenoord v Excelsior
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Feyenoord beat Excelsior 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ayase Ueda for 1+ shots total (96%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Jakub Moder for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayase Ueda | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Anis Hadj Moussa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raheem Sterling | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jakub Moder | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luciano Valente | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ayase Ueda | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Thijs Kraaijeveld | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Bos | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Noah Naujoks | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raheem Sterling | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anis Hadj Moussa | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hwang In-beom | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jerolldino Bergraaf | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Excelsior 1–2 Feyenoord Aug 2025
- Feyenoord 4–0 Excelsior May 2024
- Excelsior 2–4 Feyenoord Nov 2023
- Excelsior 0–2 Feyenoord May 2023
- Feyenoord 5–1 Excelsior Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Feyenoord v Excelsior?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Feyenoord v Excelsior?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jakub Moder at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.