Fortuna Sittard v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fortuna Sittard lost to AFC Ajax 1–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Steven Berghuis for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Mohamed Ihattaren for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdellah Ouazane | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viktor Tsygankov | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tolu Arokodare | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 7 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Ihattaren | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lequincio Zeefuik | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anthony Descotte | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jorthy Mokio | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julian Brandt | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Shiloh 't Zand | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ole Romeny | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Valaker Edvardsen | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sofyan Amrabat | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 4–1 Fortuna Sittard Feb 2026
- Fortuna Sittard 1–3 AFC Ajax Dec 2025
- Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AFC Ajax Feb 2025
- AFC Ajax 5–0 Fortuna Sittard Sep 2024
- AFC Ajax 2–2 Fortuna Sittard Mar 2024
- Fortuna Sittard 0–0 AFC Ajax Sep 2023
- AFC Ajax 4–0 Fortuna Sittard Apr 2023
- Fortuna Sittard 2–3 AFC Ajax Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fortuna Sittard v AFC Ajax?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fortuna Sittard v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mohamed Ihattaren at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.