Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fortuna Sittard beat NEC Nijmegen 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Paul Gladon for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Virgil Misidjan for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Gladon | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Linssen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tjaronn Chery | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Virgil Misidjan | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Ihattaren | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kristoffer Peterson | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Youssef El Kachati | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kento Shiogai | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dimitris Limnios | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Justin Lonwijk | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vito van Crooij | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Başar Önal | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rober González | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Philip Brittijn | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard Feb 2026
- NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Fortuna Sittard Jan 2025
- Fortuna Sittard 0–3 NEC Nijmegen Aug 2024
- Fortuna Sittard 1–1 NEC Nijmegen Apr 2024
- NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Fortuna Sittard Dec 2023
- NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Fortuna Sittard Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Virgil Misidjan at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.