Go Ahead Eagles v Excelsior
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Go Ahead Eagles beat Excelsior 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Mathis Suray for 1+ shots total (91%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Oskar Siira Sivertsen for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szymon Włodarczyk | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stefan Mitrović | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oskar Siira Sivertsen | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathis Suray | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Milan Smit | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gyan de Regt | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Richonell Margaret | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Melle Meulensteen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Irakli Yegoian | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yassir Rahmouni | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kenzo Goudmijn | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oskar Siira Sivertsen | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arthur Zagre | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Excelsior 0–1 Go Ahead Eagles Mar 2026
- Go Ahead Eagles 3–0 Excelsior Mar 2024
- Excelsior 1–1 Go Ahead Eagles Dec 2023
- Excelsior 2–1 Go Ahead Eagles Apr 2023
- Go Ahead Eagles 3–1 Excelsior Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Go Ahead Eagles v Excelsior?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Go Ahead Eagles v Excelsior?
The most confident call it got wrong was Oskar Siira Sivertsen at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.