Go Ahead Eagles v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Go Ahead Eagles lost to PSV Eindhoven 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Pepi for 1+ shots total (96%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Esmir Bajraktarević | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Guus Til | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Wanner | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Søren Tengstedt | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mathis Suray | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kiliann Sildillia | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noah Fernandez | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jakob Breum | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Victor Edvardsen | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryan Flamingo | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Go Ahead Eagles Oct 2025
- Go Ahead Eagles 3–2 PSV Eindhoven Mar 2025
- PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Go Ahead Eagles Sep 2024
- Go Ahead Eagles 0–1 PSV Eindhoven Mar 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Go Ahead Eagles Sep 2023
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Go Ahead Eagles Jan 2023
- Go Ahead Eagles 2–5 PSV Eindhoven Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Go Ahead Eagles v PSV Eindhoven?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Go Ahead Eagles v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.