NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before NEC Nijmegen drew with Excelsior 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Noé Lebreton for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Kevin Kers for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesto Groen | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aymen Sliti | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| David Garden | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ayodele Thomas | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kasey Bos | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noé Lebreton | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Kers | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilano Silva Timas | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Irakli Yegoian | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Willum Thor Willumsson | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dušan Tadić | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isak Hansen Aarøen | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ayodele Thomas | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Excelsior 0–2 NEC Nijmegen Apr 2026
- NEC Nijmegen 5–0 Excelsior Aug 2025
- Excelsior 0–3 NEC Nijmegen May 2024
- NEC Nijmegen 3–4 Excelsior Aug 2023
- Excelsior 0–3 NEC Nijmegen Feb 2023
- NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Excelsior Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kevin Kers at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.