NEC Nijmegen v NAC Breda
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before NEC Nijmegen beat NAC Breda 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Koki Ogawa for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Virgil Misidjan for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgil Misidjan | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Linssen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Koki Ogawa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tjaronn Chery | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Juho Talvitie | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Nassoh | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Başar Önal | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lewis Holtby | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sami Ouaissa | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Linssen | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kamal Sowah | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koki Ogawa | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kodai Sano | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- NAC Breda 3–4 NEC Nijmegen Jan 2026
- NEC Nijmegen 3–0 NAC Breda May 2025
- NAC Breda 1–0 NEC Nijmegen Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on NEC Nijmegen v NAC Breda?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on NEC Nijmegen v NAC Breda?
The most confident call it got wrong was Virgil Misidjan at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.