PEC Zwolle v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PEC Zwolle lost to AFC Ajax 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Steven Berghuis for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Mika Godts for 1+ shots on target (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Oscar Gloukh | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mika Godts | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jorthy Mokio | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Koen Kostons | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mika Godts | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thijs Oosting | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Youri Regeer | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Reiziger | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Mbayo | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aaron Bouwman | shots total | 1+ | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PEC Zwolle 0–0 AFC Ajax Mar 2026
- AFC Ajax 3–1 PEC Zwolle Sep 2025
- PEC Zwolle 0–1 AFC Ajax Mar 2025
- AFC Ajax 2–0 PEC Zwolle Nov 2024
- PEC Zwolle 1–3 AFC Ajax Mar 2024
- AFC Ajax 2–2 PEC Zwolle Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PEC Zwolle v AFC Ajax?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PEC Zwolle v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mika Godts at 73% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.