PSV Eindhoven v Almere City FC
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven beat Almere City FC 5–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Luuk de Jong for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Charles-Andreas Brym for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Saibari | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 8 | ✓ |
| Luuk de Jong | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Johan Bakayoko | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Noa Lang | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Malik Tillman | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Guus Til | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Junior Kadile | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kornelius Normann | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Charles-Andreas Brym | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Johan Bakayoko | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luuk de Jong | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joey Veerman | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guus Til | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Almere City FC 1–7 PSV Eindhoven Aug 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Almere City FC Jan 2024
- Almere City FC 0–4 PSV Eindhoven Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v Almere City FC?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v Almere City FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Charles-Andreas Brym at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.