PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven drew with Fortuna Sittard 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Pepi for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Dennis Man for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ruben van Bommel | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sven Mijnans | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alassane Pléa | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dennis Man | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guus Til | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Paul Wanner | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lequincio Zeefuik | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Ihattaren | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sven Mijnans | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yassin Oukili | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ole Romeny | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Fortuna Sittard 1–2 PSV Eindhoven Jan 2026
- PSV Eindhoven 5–2 Fortuna Sittard Oct 2025
- PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Fortuna Sittard May 2025
- Fortuna Sittard 1–3 PSV Eindhoven Sep 2024
- Fortuna Sittard 1–1 PSV Eindhoven May 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 3–1 Fortuna Sittard Oct 2023
- PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Fortuna Sittard May 2023
- Fortuna Sittard 2–2 PSV Eindhoven Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dennis Man at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.