PSV Eindhoven v NEC Nijmegen
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven lost to NEC Nijmegen 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Ismael Saibari for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Saibari | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Man | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Couhaib Driouech | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Myron Boadu | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tjaronn Chery | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Youssef El Kachati | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Wanner | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Linssen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 6 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ismael Saibari | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Başar Önal | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noé Lebreton | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- NEC Nijmegen 3–5 PSV Eindhoven Sep 2025
- NEC Nijmegen 3–3 PSV Eindhoven Feb 2025
- PSV Eindhoven 2–0 NEC Nijmegen Sep 2024
- NEC Nijmegen 3–1 PSV Eindhoven Mar 2024
- PSV Eindhoven 4–0 NEC Nijmegen Sep 2023
- NEC Nijmegen 2–4 PSV Eindhoven Apr 2023
- PSV Eindhoven 3–0 NEC Nijmegen Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v NEC Nijmegen?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v NEC Nijmegen?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.