RKC Waalwijk v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before RKC Waalwijk lost to AFC Ajax 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Chuba Akpom for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Brian Brobbey for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chuba Akpom | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jaydon Banel | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Bertrand Traoré | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christian Rasmussen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Branco Van den Boomen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kenneth Taylor | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Oskar Zawada | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mika Godts | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chuba Akpom | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brian Brobbey | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chris Lokesa | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kian Fitz-Jim | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Richonell Margaret | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 2–1 RKC Waalwijk Jan 2025
- AFC Ajax 4–1 RKC Waalwijk Jan 2024
- RKC Waalwijk 2–3 AFC Ajax Dec 2023
- AFC Ajax 3–1 RKC Waalwijk Feb 2023
- RKC Waalwijk 1–4 AFC Ajax Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on RKC Waalwijk v AFC Ajax?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on RKC Waalwijk v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Brian Brobbey at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.