RKC Waalwijk v FC Utrecht
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before RKC Waalwijk lost to FC Utrecht 0–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Miguel Rodríguez for 1+ shots total (96%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Jens Toornstra for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Rodríguez | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Yoann Cathline | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sébastien Haller | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Victor Jensen | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jens Toornstra | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Ihattaren | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paxten Aaronson | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Michiel Kramer | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Richonell Margaret | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chris Lokesa | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Miguel Rodríguez | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yoann Cathline | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Souffian El Karouani | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yassin Oukili | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Utrecht 3–2 RKC Waalwijk Oct 2024
- RKC Waalwijk 2–2 FC Utrecht Apr 2024
- FC Utrecht 1–1 RKC Waalwijk Dec 2023
- FC Utrecht 2–0 RKC Waalwijk May 2023
- RKC Waalwijk 2–2 FC Utrecht Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on RKC Waalwijk v FC Utrecht?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on RKC Waalwijk v FC Utrecht?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jens Toornstra at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.