Sparta Rotterdam v FC Groningen
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sparta Rotterdam beat FC Groningen 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Oskar Zawada for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oskar Zawada | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thom van Bergen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Younes Taha | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| David van der Werff | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shunsuke Mito | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mitchell Van Bergen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tobias Lauritsen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oskar Zawada | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tygo Land | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Thom van Bergen | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ayoni Santos | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jorg Schreuders | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Groningen 0–2 Sparta Rotterdam Oct 2025
- Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 FC Groningen Feb 2025
- FC Groningen 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam Nov 2024
- FC Groningen 0–5 Sparta Rotterdam May 2023
- Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 FC Groningen Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sparta Rotterdam v FC Groningen?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sparta Rotterdam v FC Groningen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Oskar Zawada at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.