Sparta Rotterdam v FC Twente
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sparta Rotterdam lost to FC Twente 1–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Kristian Hlynsson for 1+ shots total (94%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Mitchell Van Bergen for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Hlynsson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ricky van Wolfswinkel | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tobias Lauritsen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ayoub Oufkir | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marko Pjaca | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mitchell Van Bergen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daan Rots | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sondre Ørjasæter | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daouda Weidmann | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sayfallah Ltaief | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lance Duijvestijn | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jens Toornstra | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Robin Pröpper | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kristian Hlynsson | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Twente 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam May 2026
- Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 FC Twente May 2025
- FC Twente 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam Aug 2024
- FC Twente 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam Mar 2024
- Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 FC Twente Dec 2023
- FC Twente 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam Jun 2023
- Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 FC Twente Jun 2023
- FC Twente 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sparta Rotterdam v FC Twente?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sparta Rotterdam v FC Twente?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mitchell Van Bergen at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.