Vitesse v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Vitesse drew with AFC Ajax 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Brian Brobbey for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Brian Brobbey for 1+ shots on target (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Steven Berghuis | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chuba Akpom | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Steven Bergwijn | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 6 | ✓ |
| Kacper Kozłowski | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marco van Ginkel | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amine Boutrah | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Thomas Buitink | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paxten Aaronson | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gyan de Regt | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kenneth Taylor | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Steven Bergwijn | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brian Brobbey | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Steven Berghuis | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 5–0 Vitesse Nov 2023
- Vitesse 1–2 AFC Ajax Feb 2023
- AFC Ajax 2–2 Vitesse Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Vitesse v AFC Ajax?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Vitesse v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Brian Brobbey at 76% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.