AEK Athens v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AEK Athens drew with AFC Ajax 1–1, the SharpXI model made 9 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Ezequiel Ponce for 1+ shots total (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ezequiel Ponce for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Ponce | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ezequiel Ponce | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Ponce | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Ponce | tackles | 1+ | 56% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ezequiel Ponce | fouls drawn | 1+ | 53% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | shots on target | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | cards | — | 23% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Ponce | cards | — | 18% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Tackles Shots on target Fouls drawn Cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 3–1 AEK Athens Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AEK Athens v AFC Ajax?
3 of its 9 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AEK Athens v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ezequiel Ponce at 86% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.