AFC Ajax v AEK Athens
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax beat AEK Athens 3–1, the SharpXI model made 10 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Chuba Akpom for 1+ fouls drawn (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Benjamin Tahirović for 1+ fouls drawn (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Akpom | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Chuba Akpom | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 8 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chuba Akpom | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 5 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chuba Akpom | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Borna Sosa | tackles | 1+ | 59% | 2 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | shots total | 1+ | 57% | 1 | ✓ |
| Borna Sosa | fouls committed | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chuba Akpom | tackles | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Borna Sosa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 44% | 0 | ✗ |
| Borna Sosa | shots total | 1+ | 41% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Tahirović | shots on target | 1+ | 33% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AEK Athens 1–1 AFC Ajax Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v AEK Athens?
9 of its 10 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v AEK Athens?
The most confident call it got wrong was Benjamin Tahirović at 73% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.