Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Qarabağ FK
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat Qarabağ FK 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Patrik Schick for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jonas Hofmann for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Borja Iglesias | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Amine Adli | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jonas Hofmann | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Wirtz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jeremie Frimpong | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Amine Adli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Exequiel Palacios | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Exequiel Palacios | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robert Andrich | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Odilon Kossounou | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Piero Hincapié | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amine Adli | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Qarabağ FK 2–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Mar 2024
- Qarabağ FK 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Nov 2023
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–1 Qarabağ FK Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Qarabağ FK?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Qarabağ FK?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jonas Hofmann at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.