Bologna v AS Roma
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bologna drew with AS Roma 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Santiago Castro for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Castro | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonathan Rowe | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Federico Bernardeschi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Robinio Vaz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Rowe | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wesley | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Zaragoza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Devyne Rensch | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Niccolò Pisilli | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Neil El Aynaoui | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Ferguson | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolò Casale | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bologna 0–2 AS Roma Apr 2026
- AS Roma 3–4 Bologna Mar 2026
- AS Roma 1–0 Bologna Aug 2025
- Bologna 2–2 AS Roma Jan 2025
- AS Roma 2–3 Bologna Nov 2024
- AS Roma 1–3 Bologna Apr 2024
- Bologna 2–0 AS Roma Dec 2023
- Bologna 0–0 AS Roma May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bologna v AS Roma?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bologna v AS Roma?
The most confident call it got wrong was Santiago Castro at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.