Olympiacos FC v Qarabağ FK
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympiacos FC beat Qarabağ FK 3–0, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Gelson Martins for 1+ tackles (89%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Dani García for 1+ shots total (57%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gelson Martins | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gelson Martins | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dani García | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pirola | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giulian Biancone | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dani García | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pirola | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gelson Martins | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giulian Biancone | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gelson Martins | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gelson Martins | shots on target | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dani García | shots total | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dani García | fouls drawn | 1+ | 53% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lorenzo Pirola | shots total | 1+ | 49% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Qarabağ FK 0–0 Olympiacos FC Oct 2022
- Olympiacos FC 0–3 Qarabağ FK Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympiacos FC v Qarabağ FK?
11 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympiacos FC v Qarabağ FK?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dani García at 57% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.