SK Sturm Graz v Sporting CP
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SK Sturm Graz lost to Sporting CP 1–2, the SharpXI model made 7 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Morten Hjulmand for 1+ tackles (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Morten Hjulmand for 1+ fouls drawn (69%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Hjulmand | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 6 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | shots total | 1+ | 49% | 0 | ✗ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | tackles | 1+ | 38% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | cards | — | 23% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | cards | — | 19% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Morten Hjulmand | shots on target | 1+ | 19% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target Cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SK Sturm Graz 0–2 Sporting CP Oct 2024
- Sporting CP 3–0 SK Sturm Graz Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SK Sturm Graz v Sporting CP?
6 of its 7 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SK Sturm Graz v Sporting CP?
The most confident call it got wrong was Morten Hjulmand at 69% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.