Atlético Madrid v Real Oviedo
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atlético Madrid beat Real Oviedo 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Alexander Sørloth for 1+ shots total (95%, had 8). Its clearest miss: Antoine Griezmann for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 8 | ✓ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolás González | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nahuel Molina | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Federico Viñas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolás González | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Giuliano Simeone | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leander Dendoncker | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 38% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Oviedo 0–1 Atlético Madrid Feb 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atlético Madrid v Real Oviedo?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atlético Madrid v Real Oviedo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Antoine Griezmann at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.