Total shots — modelling a player's shot volume for the bet builder
Total shots (all attempts, on or off target) is a higher-volume cousin of shots on target, so the lines run 1+, 2+ and 3+. SharpXI models each line from a player's underlying shot rate and the opponent's tendency to concede shots.
How SharpXI models it
Same engine as shots on target: a recency-weighted per-90 rate, empirical-Bayes shrinkage for small samples, minutes scaling, an opponent concede-factor, and a Negative Binomial for P(shots ≥ line). Prices are de-vigged with Shin's method.
Go deeper: How we model shot volume →
Where the value tends to sit
Because volume is higher, the distribution is wider — a forward who takes lots of speculative efforts can be strong value at 2+ or 3+ even when 1+ is short.
La Liga leaders this season
In the 25/26 La Liga season, Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) leads for total shots at 5.05 per 90, ahead of Lamine Yamal (4.64) and Raphinha (4.21). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 5.05 | 97% |
| Lamine Yamal | FC Barcelona | 4.64 | 93% |
| Raphinha | FC Barcelona | 4.21 | 95% |
| Marcus Rashford | FC Barcelona | 3.88 | 81% |
| Carlos Espí | Levante UD | 3.80 | 68% |
| Largie Ramazani | Valencia | 3.67 | 81% |
| Rodrygo | Real Madrid | 3.57 | 74% |
| Robert Lewandowski | FC Barcelona | 3.42 | 87% |
| Rafa Mir | Elche | 3.42 | 89% |
| Fermín López | FC Barcelona | 3.41 | 80% |
| Raúl García de Haro | Osasuna | 3.37 | 64% |
| Vedat Muriqi | Mallorca | 3.33 | 95% |
Frequently asked
Does total shots include blocked shots?
It follows the match-data provider's definition of a player's total shots, which includes attempts that are on target, off target and, per the source, blocked.
Why are there three lines for total shots?
Shot volume is high enough that 1+, 2+ and 3+ are all live markets. SharpXI models the probability of each independently rather than assuming a fixed relationship.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.