Julián Alvarez
Striker 100% of 30 recent starts Atlético MadridLa Liga 26/27
Also in: Premier League
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a La Liga striker, 25/26, 1,664 appearances
Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox
Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 La Liga games, Julián Alvarez has hit 1+ shot on target in 60% (6 of 10), 1+ total shot in 70%, 1+ foul committed in 20%, 1+ foul won in 20%, and been booked in 0% (0 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable strikers
The closest 5 profiles to Julián Alvarez in La Liga, 26/27 — drawn from 13 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julián AlvarezAtlético Madrid | 3 | 5.42 | 1.08 |
| Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.64 | 1.53 |
| Ante BudimirOsasuna | 7 | 3.23 | 1.79 |
| Fernando NiñoElche | 7 | 2.11 | 0.77 |
| Mikel OyarzabalReal Sociedad | 7 | 2.07 | 0.75 |
| Arnaut DanjumaValencia | 7 | 2.57 | 1.03 |
| These 5, combined | 2.72 | 1.18 |
No close match — the nearest profile sits well outside the usual range, so read these five as the closest available rather than as like-for-like.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Julián Alvarez featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid20 Sep | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Athletic Club5 Sep | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Villarreal23 Aug | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Real Madrid22 Mar | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Getafe14 Mar | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Real Sociedad7 Mar | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Real Oviedo28 Feb | 45 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Espanyol21 Feb | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Rayo Vallecano15 Feb | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Real Betis8 Feb | 45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 11 current La Liga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All La Liga referees
Frequently asked
How often does Julián Alvarez have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 La Liga games, Julián Alvarez has hit 1+ shot on target in 60% (6 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Julián Alvarez average?
Across the last 10 La Liga games, Julián Alvarez is averaging 1.63 shots on target and 3.26 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Julián Alvarez get booked?
Julián Alvarez is averaging 0.00 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Julián Alvarez commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Julián Alvarez commits 0.47 fouls per 90 and wins 0.70 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Julián Alvarez?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Julián Alvarez plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.