Granada v Real Sociedad
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Granada lost to Real Sociedad 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Brais Méndez for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Sergio Ruiz for 1+ fouls drawn (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brais Méndez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| André Silva | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergio Ruiz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonzalo Villar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sheraldo Becker | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kamil Jóźwiak | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Umar Sadiq | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Umar Sadiq | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Boyé | fouls committed | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Brais Méndez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kamil Jóźwiak | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Boyé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergio Ruiz | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Sociedad 5–3 Granada Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Granada v Real Sociedad?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Granada v Real Sociedad?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sergio Ruiz at 93% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.