Las Palmas v Cádiz
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Las Palmas drew with Cádiz 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Munir El Haddadi for 1+ shots total (92%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Iván Alejo for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munir El Haddadi | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chris Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 6 | ✓ |
| Rubén Alcaraz | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Munir El Haddadi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Iván Alejo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rubén Alcaraz | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Navarro | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Pires | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Máximo Perrone | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rubén Sobrino | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Iván Alejo | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chris Ramos | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Roger Martí | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rubén Sobrino | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 71% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 34% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 30% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cádiz 0–0 Las Palmas May 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Las Palmas v Cádiz?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Las Palmas v Cádiz?
The most confident call it got wrong was Iván Alejo at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.