Leganés v Mallorca
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leganés lost to Mallorca 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Vedat Muriqi for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Dani Raba for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takuma Asano | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dani Raba | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diego García | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Óscar Rodríguez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vedat Muriqi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marc Domenech | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Munir El Haddadi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel de la Fuente | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samú Costa | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Miguel de la Fuente | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manu Morlanes | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Maffeo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Renato Tapia | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samú Costa | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Mallorca 0–0 Leganés Apr 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leganés v Mallorca?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leganés v Mallorca?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dani Raba at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.