Leganés v Real Sociedad
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leganés lost to Real Sociedad 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Yvan Neyou for 1+ fouls drawn (92%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Valentin Rosier for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvan Neyou | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brais Méndez | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Miguel de la Fuente | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brais Méndez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Takefusa Kubo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Diego García | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jon Aramburu | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Martín Zubimendi | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sergio Gómez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yvan Neyou | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Óscar Rodríguez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Valentin Rosier | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Renato Tapia | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 41% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 34% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 28% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Leganés Feb 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leganés v Real Sociedad?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leganés v Real Sociedad?
The most confident call it got wrong was Valentin Rosier at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.