Málaga CF v Deportivo de A Coruña
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Málaga CF drew with Deportivo de A Coruña 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: David Mella for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| David Mella | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luismi Cruz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joaquín Muñoz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Amatucci | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Diego Villares | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mario Soriano | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ximo Navarro | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adrià Altimira | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Quagliata | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diego Villares | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Málaga CF v Deportivo de A Coruña?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Málaga CF v Deportivo de A Coruña?
The most confident call it got wrong was David Mella at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.