Rayo Vallecano v Leganés
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rayo Vallecano drew with Leganés 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Sergio Camello for 1+ shots total (92%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Isi Palazón for 1+ fouls drawn (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isi Palazón | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isi Palazón | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Renato Tapia | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Valentin Rosier | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Darko Brašanac | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Seydouba Cisse | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Óscar Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Randy Nteka | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óscar Valentín | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Renato Tapia | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Unai López | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darko Brašanac | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Javier Hernández | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 46% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leganés 0–1 Rayo Vallecano Jan 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rayo Vallecano v Leganés?
5 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rayo Vallecano v Leganés?
The most confident call it got wrong was Isi Palazón at 93% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.