Germany v Italy
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Germany drew with Italy 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Karim Adeyemi for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Davide Frattesi for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karim Adeyemi | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Destiny Udogie | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Leroy Sané | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Raspadori | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tim Kleindienst | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Daniel Maldini | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moise Kean | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Davide Frattesi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daniel Maldini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nadiem Amiri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuele Ricci | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Italy 1–2 Germany Mar 2025
- Germany 5–2 Italy Jun 2022
- Italy 1–1 Germany Jun 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Germany v Italy?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Germany v Italy?
The most confident call it got wrong was Davide Frattesi at 87% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.