Italy v Belgium
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Italy lost to Belgium 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Moise Kean for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Giovanni Di Lorenzo for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sandro Tonali | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youri Tielemans | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moise Kean | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin De Bruyne | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sandro Tonali | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Riccardo Calafiori | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charles De Ketelaere | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Barella | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charles De Ketelaere | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sandro Tonali | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Belgium 0–1 Italy Nov 2024
- Italy 2–2 Belgium Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Italy v Belgium?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Italy v Belgium?
The most confident call it got wrong was Giovanni Di Lorenzo at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.