Luxembourg v Bulgaria
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luxembourg lost to Bulgaria 0–2, the SharpXI model made 12 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Aiman Dardari for 1+ shots total (87%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ilia Gruev for 1+ fouls committed (68%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiman Dardari | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aiman Dardari | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mathias Olesen | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Olesen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Olesen | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aiman Dardari | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Olesen | shots total | 1+ | 56% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aiman Dardari | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aiman Dardari | tackles | 1+ | 53% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | shots total | 1+ | 53% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilia Gruev | fouls drawn | 1+ | 44% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | shots on target | 1+ | 21% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg Sep 2026
- Luxembourg 0–1 Bulgaria Nov 2024
- Bulgaria 0–0 Luxembourg Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luxembourg v Bulgaria?
9 of its 12 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luxembourg v Bulgaria?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ilia Gruev at 68% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.