AVS - Futebol SAD v Tondela
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AVS - Futebol SAD drew with Tondela 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Maranhão for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Yarlen for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maranhão | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordan Siebatcheu | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yarlen | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rony Lopes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yefrei Rodriguez | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Cavaleiro | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Óscar Perea | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tomané | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bruno Lourenço | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rafael Barbosa | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pedro Lima | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hugo Félix | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óscar Perea | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maranhão | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Tondela 0–0 AVS - Futebol SAD Mar 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AVS - Futebol SAD v Tondela?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AVS - Futebol SAD v Tondela?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yarlen at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.