Total shots — modelling a player's shot volume for the bet builder
Total shots (all attempts, on or off target) is a higher-volume cousin of shots on target, so the lines run 1+, 2+ and 3+. SharpXI models each line from a player's underlying shot rate and the opponent's tendency to concede shots.
How SharpXI models it
Same engine as shots on target: a recency-weighted per-90 rate, empirical-Bayes shrinkage for small samples, minutes scaling, an opponent concede-factor, and a Negative Binomial for P(shots ≥ line). The price is compared as offered — shots are quoted one side only, so the margin stays in it.
Go deeper: How we model shot volume
Where the value tends to sit
Because volume is higher, the distribution is wider — a forward who takes lots of speculative efforts can be strong value at 2+ or 3+ even when 1+ is short.
Primeira Liga leaders this season
In the 26/27 Primeira Liga season, Gustavo Silva (Vitória SC) leads for total shots at 4.29 per 90, ahead of Gianluca Prestianni (4.21) and Gonçalo Paciência (4.00). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Silva | Vitória SC | 4.29 | 100% |
| Gianluca Prestianni | Benfica | 4.21 | 100% |
| Gonçalo Paciência | Santa Clara | 4.00 | 100% |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | Benfica | 3.94 | 100% |
| Gabri Veiga | FC Porto | 3.74 | 100% |
| Héctor Hernández | Gil Vicente | 3.29 | 71% |
| William Gomes | FC Porto | 3.28 | 100% |
| Leandro Antonetti | CF Estrela Amadora | 2.90 | 88% |
| André Clóvis | Académico Viseu FC | 2.88 | 75% |
| Martín Tejón | Marítimo | 2.83 | 100% |
| André Silva | FC Porto | 2.77 | 88% |
| Luis Javier Suárez | Sporting CP | 2.77 | 75% |
Frequently asked
Does total shots include blocked shots?
It follows the match-data provider's definition of a player's total shots, which includes attempts that are on target, off target and, per the source, blocked.
Why are there three lines for total shots?
Shot volume is high enough that 1+, 2+ and 3+ are all live markets. SharpXI models the probability of each independently rather than assuming a fixed relationship.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.