Casa Pia v Sporting Braga
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Casa Pia lost to Sporting Braga 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Horta for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Rodrigo Zalazar for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pau Víctor | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Claudio Mendes | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cassiano | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabriel Moscardo | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Livolant | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oluwakorede Osundina | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabriel Martínez | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sporting Braga 4–0 Casa Pia Oct 2025
- Casa Pia 2–1 Sporting Braga May 2025
- Sporting Braga 1–2 Casa Pia Dec 2024
- Sporting Braga 4–3 Casa Pia May 2024
- Casa Pia 1–3 Sporting Braga Dec 2023
- Casa Pia 0–1 Sporting Braga Apr 2023
- Sporting Braga 0–1 Casa Pia Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Casa Pia v Sporting Braga?
5 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Casa Pia v Sporting Braga?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rodrigo Zalazar at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.