Estoril Praia v Vitória SC
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Estoril Praia beat Vitória SC 4–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Alioune Ndoye for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Noah Saviolo for 1+ shots total (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alioune Ndoye | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Silva | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Noah Saviolo | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oumar Camara | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samu | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matija Mitrović | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Marqués | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 6 | ✓ |
| João Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diogo Sousa | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alioune Ndoye | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Silva | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noah Saviolo | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Vitória SC 3–2 Estoril Praia Aug 2025
- Estoril Praia 1–0 Vitória SC Jan 2025
- Vitória SC 1–0 Estoril Praia Aug 2024
- Estoril Praia 1–3 Vitória SC Mar 2024
- Vitória SC 3–2 Estoril Praia Oct 2023
- Estoril Praia 0–1 Vitória SC Feb 2023
- Vitória SC 1–0 Estoril Praia Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Estoril Praia v Vitória SC?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Estoril Praia v Vitória SC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Noah Saviolo at 90% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.