FC Alverca v Tondela
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Alverca beat Tondela 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Marko Milovanović for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Sandro Lima for 1+ shots total (97%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marko Milovanović | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sandro Lima | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rony Lopes | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ivan Cavaleiro | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yarlen | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sabit Abdulai | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lincoln | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marko Milovanović | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sandro Lima | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexsandro Amorim | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jeffrey Rodriguez | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rony Lopes | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ivan Cavaleiro | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yarlen | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Tondela 1–1 FC Alverca Feb 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Alverca v Tondela?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Alverca v Tondela?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sandro Lima at 97% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.